Weekend Box Office (November 27 - 29, 2015)
THIS WEEKEND Pixar is back with its second title of the year with The Good Dinosaur which will offer families something to see together over the long Thanksgiving session. The Disney stable has ruled this holiday and the brand name has been a big part of the success. Pixar is the gold standard in animation so this PG-rated pic is sure to draw in large crowds. Competition is not too fierce as The Peanuts Movie has been aging and there is really nothing else to bring children to.
Some darker elements to the story may not allow Dinosaur to go down as smoothly with audiences as Inside Out did over the summer. But it's clear sailing ahead so with 3,749 locations, The Good Dinosaur might open to about $50M over the weekend and $68M across the five days of Wednesday to Sunday.
Warner Bros. has had a string of bad luck lately but Thanksgiving will bring a nice feast in the form of Creed, the new spinoff picture from the Rocky franchise. Produced by MGM, the PG-13 film will give a nice bounce back for Michael B. Jordan after the summer flop Fantastic Four with the actor stepping into two very different established franchises this year. The one-two punch of glowing reviews and incredible word-of-mouth will lead to a strong debut with sales sustaining themselves throughout the five-day period.
With Stallone on board playing Rocky, appeal is broad across age, race, and gender lines. The turkey frame has been good to this boxing franchise in the past and moviegoers want that exciting uplifting story at this time of year. Playing in 3,404 theaters, Creed could bow to about $26M over the weekend and $38M across five days.
Thanksgiving and Christmas are cheery holidays which find moviegoers in the mood for lighter, upbeat fare. Darker films generally find it tough at these times. Fox unleashes Victor Frankenstein which will try to carve out its own slice of the box office pie catering to thrillseekers. The PG-13 monster adventure offers the intriguing combo of James McAvoy and Daniel Radcliffe. But the starpower will be countered by very bad reviews which will turn off many. Opening in 2,795 theaters, Victor Frankenstein may collect about $8M over the weekend and $11M over five days.
Like all past Hunger Games films, Mockingjay Part 2 hopes to hold onto the top spot in its second weekend. The last two installments had Thanksgiving on the sophomore frame and had identical drops of 53%. As a four-quel, the new Katniss film may play more upfront plus competition from new films is stronger than it was last year. A 55% drop would put Part 2 at about $46M for the Friday-to-Sunday period and $192M overall.
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LAST YEAR Easily ruling the turkey frame in its second helping was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 with $57M pushing the cume to a series low $225.7M. DreamWorks did not attract huge lines for its holiday toon Penguins of Madagascar which bowed to $25.4M and $35.4M over five days. Fox wound up with $83.4M domestic and $370M worldwide. Disney's rival toon Big Hero 6 stayed popular in its fourth weekend with $18.8M while Interstellar took in $15.7M. Horrible Bosses 2 debuted to $15.5M and $22.8M over the long weekend on its way to $54.4M falling sharply from its predecessor.
This column is updated three times each week: Thursday (upcoming weekend's summary), Sunday (post-weekend analysis with estimates), and Monday night (actuals). Opinions expressed in this column are those solely of the author.
Last Updated: November 25, 2015 at 3:10PM ET
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