Weekend Box Office (November 20 - 22, 2009)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND The highly-anticipated launch of the high school romance The Twilight Saga: New Moon could send the North American box office soaring to its highest level in 16 months. The female-driven phenomenon will have some company on the charts as Sandra Bullock's football drama The Blind Side and the animated comedy Planet 51 will offer some new choices to those not interested in vampires, werewolves, and the ladies in between. With some big holdovers still in release, the top ten will be flirting with the $200M mark making it the largest November weekend in history.

Summit scored a massive blockbuster this weekend last year with Twilight which spun gold from a popular novel with a loyal following and a collection of little known actors. Just like with the Harry Potter series, the Twilight franchise also launches its second installment one year later on the same mid-November weekend. But whereas the second wizard flick posted a slightly smaller bow, New Moon will see substantial growth in its numbers thanks to more fans, more attention, and 605 more theaters. The PG-13 pic has a new director in Chris Weitz (The Golden Compass, American Pie) but still features the three main characters played once again by Kristen Stewart, Robert Pattinson, and Taylor Lautner. Lautner gets a bigger role this time around, as do Pattinson's hair care products.

A year ago, Twilight opened in 3,419 locations and grossed a stunning $69.6M proving how powerful the franchise was. It was the fourth best opening of 2008, the fifth highest for November, and the second largest debut ever from outside the major Hollywood studios. Females made up 75% of the audience and while younger women were the core, the age range was broad with plenty of mother-daughter biz. The first shows at midnight on late Thursday brought in $7M and with more fan frenzy this time, that figure could triple. Saturday grosses collapsed a disturbing 41% and New Moon could do the same or even fall harder since fans don't want to wait to see the Bella-Edward-Jacob love triangle any longer than they have to.

Mega-intense demand to see the film as early as possible means that Thursday night's midnight shows will deliver grosses that have never been seen outside of summer. New Moon may follow a pattern like last summer's Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. The latest wizard pic bowed on a Wednesday in the summer making it different, but it pushed an unbelievable amount of its total opening weekend business to those first midnight shows. Prince set a new record with $22.2M worth of sales for its late Tuesday night showtimes representing 14% of the five-day $158M debut. That compares to 9% for its predecessor Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix and 8% for this year's Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, both of which opened on a Wednesday with first shows at midnight on Tuesday night.

New Moon is a Friday opener outside of the summer so the dynamic will be different, but you can bet that Thursday night figures will be among the best ever for night-before shows and unless repeat business kicks in right away, it could let some steam out of Friday-to-Sunday moviegoing. Remember, Twilight absorbed an exceptionally high 52% of its opening weekend tally on Friday so New Moon could be even more front-loaded. Of course, if fans love what they see then their online feedback will spread instantaneously and energize other groups.

The marketing push from Summit has been relentless and awareness is sky high among fans. Winning over non-fans and men in general will be tough. The distributor should inform single guys everywhere that if they want to know where the girls are this weekend, it'll be at the local multiplex. How much growth the New Moon opening will see will depend on how many patrons for Twilight saw the film after the first three days. Those folks are likely to be there in the first frame this time around. Looking at the recent James Bond films which also opened in November, Quantum of Solace's bow grew 65% over Casino Royale's from two years earlier. Don't expect the same jump, but an increase of 40% or more is certainly possible, especially with the extra playdates.

Both MovieTickets.com and Fandango have reported that New Moon has broken their all-time advance sales records surpassing blockbusters like Star Wars Episode III and The Dark Knight. What they don't mention is that the new Twilight flick had its tickets go on sale extraordinarily early - nearly three months before the release date. Still the film industry is set to see one of the biggest openings of all-time and one of the largest blockbusters of the year which will help raise the overall marketplace ahead of the lucrative Thanksgiving holiday next week. Opening in 4,054 theaters, The Twilight Saga: New Moon could collect around $102M this weekend.

Be sure to check BoxOfficeGuru.com online and on Twitter this Saturday for an update on the opening day performance of New Moon.

She's been gone a while, but now Sandra Bullock returns to the big screen for the third time in five months with the football drama The Blind Side. The PG-13 film about a homeless black youth adopted by a rich white family who becomes a gridiron great will try to appeal to sports fans and to those looking for an inspirational story about overcoming hardships. Pigskin pics usually draw sizable crowds and Bullock offers a decent amount of starpower. Plus Thanksgiving-time is a good time for themes like this. But Blind hasn't generated must-see excitement so it will only rush for so many yards this weekend. If word-of-mouth is good, it may score a solid hold next weekend over the extended holiday frame. Reviews have been decent so far. Charging into 3,100 locations, The Blind Side may capture about $15M this weekend.

Spain enters the cluttered animation world with the comedy adventure Planet 51 produced by Madrid-based Ilion Animation Studios with Sony on board for marketing and distribution duties. The PG-rated film features the voice of Dwayne Johnson, minus his stage name The Rock, as a charismatic American astronaut that lands on a far away planet where he is feared to be a savage alien. Also collecting paychecks for their gigs in the voiceover booth are Jessica Biel, Mac boy Justin Long, Gary Oldman, and John Cleese. Young kids will be the primary audience here and crossover potential to teens and young adults is limited. Success will be hard to find. Planet 51 is just a normal 2D computer-animated pic which at the tail end of 3D's coming out year seems like a step backwards. At the beginning of this decade, the film would have been impressive but now every little studio and film company is making toons like this one so there's nothing special here. The story is not too interesting and the cast won't excite that many families. Weak reviews will not help either.

But there are two factors that Sony is counting on. First, the fall has been filled with kidpics that have been more dark and serious like A Christmas Carol and Where the Wild Things Are so parents could be looking for a film that is light and goes for laughs. Plus direct competition for families is not too heavy at the moment with Carol being the only major foe to worry about. So there is an opportunity that audiences may lower their standards and go for this, in the first two weeks at least. How many moms get distracted by hunky werewolves this weekend will also be a factor. Landing in over 2,600 theaters, Planet 51 might gross about $13M this weekend.

More than a year after becoming a runaway blockbuster across Asia, John Woo's historical Chinese epic Red Cliff hits the United States in limited release following its one-month digital window. The R-rated pic, which combines the two-part five-hour original story into a two-and-a-half hour condensed cut for U.S. audiences, is the latest from Magnolia's Six-Shooter Film Series V2 which brings in action films from around the world and releases them where young males are likely to get them - VOD, XBOX Live, and Amazon - followed by a traditional theatrical opening a month later. The unorthodox tactic must be bringing in some cash since the distributor and its Magnet division have been doing this for many films now. IFC also offers films on VOD first ahead of their theatrical runs. Red Cliff bowed in two New York houses on Wednesday and will expand to fifteen additional markets next Wednesday ahead of turkey day.

2012 dominated the box office last weekend here and just about everywhere else. But Twilight will take away much of the heat so a large decline is guaranteed especially since effects-driven disaster pics rarely have legs. Second weekend drops for Roland Emmerich's last two films were 53% for 10,000 B.C. and 60% for The Day After Tomorrow which bowed over a holiday frame. Audiences aren't liking 2012 any more than those two flicks so expect a fall in the same range. The end-of-world saga may tumble 55% to about $29M which would give the studio a ten-day domestic take of $112M.

Disney's A Christmas Carol enjoyed a good hold last weekend but will face direct competition from a new animated film, one which promises more comedy. The two toons may even be neighbors on the charts this weekend. Jim Carrey's 3D yuletide extravaganza may fall by 30% to around $15M giving Carol about $82M to date.

Critical darling Precious shot up to number three nationwide last weekend astounding the film industry. The Lionsgate hit became the only film this entire decade to reach the top three while playing in fewer than 200 theaters. Now with an army of followers and a wave of mainstream press built up over two weeks of limited play, Precious is ready to go big time with an expansion into more than 600 locations on Friday. Last weekend's sizzling $33,762 average will get diluted down with the wider distribution, but expect the awards contender to once again have the second best average in the top ten. And if either Planet 51 or The Blind Side tanks, Precious may just remain in the top five. For the weekend, a gross of roughly $11M may result boosting the total to $21M.

Get earlier box office updates and analysis by following BoxOfficeGuru.com on Twitter. Check the UPDATED chart for the Top All-Time Opening Days.

For NEW reviews of The Twilight Saga: New Moon, Planet 51, 2012 and Fantastic Mr. Fox visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR Edward and Bella surprised the world with their instant blockbuster Twilight which bowed to $69.6M for the fourth largest debut of the year behind just The Dark Knight, Indiana Jones, and Iron Man. After a steep second weekend drop, the Summit smash settled in and enjoyed good legs throughout the holiday season ending up with $191.5M making it the seventh largest blockbuster of 2008. In a tight race for the runner-up spot, Quantum of Solace in its sophomore session narrowly beat out the opening of the 3D toon Bolt $26.7M vs. $26.2M. The James Bond adventure broke the $100M mark in just nine days while Disney's animated entry found its way to $114.1M domestically and $306M worldwide. Rounding out the top five were Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa with $15.7M and Role Models with $7.3M.

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Last Updated: November 19, 2009 at 10:10AM ET