Weekend Box Office (July 5 - 7, 2013)
THIS WEEKEND A booming June box office spills into a new month with three films opening on Wednesday ahead of the Fourth of July holiday on Thursday which will make for a long five-day frame. Animated sequel Despicable Me 2 leads the way joined by Johnny Depp's adventure The Lone Ranger which hope to take the top two spots. Also opening is the stand-up concert Kevin Hart: Laugh At My Pain. The extra time off will also allow moviegoers to catch up on holdovers with the most buzz.
Steve Carell returns to animated territory with Despicable Me 2 which is looking to rule the extended five-day holiday session with broad appeal that will reach well beyond families. The PG-rated toon follows the incrediblly successful predecessor which opened to $56.4M in July 2010 on its way to a leggy run that ended with $251.5M making it the number seven blockbuster of the whole year and the second largest toon. The sequel will take advantage of that good will created as fans are eager to see Gru and his Minions tackle a new story. Plus three years is a good amount of time between films. Once again, it is presented with a 3D option.
DM2 has already gotten off to a stronger start than Monsters University with its night-before-opening late shows. The Minions did $4.7M on Tuesday starting at 7pm while Mike and Sulley grossed $3M on a Thursday from 8pm on. It should be noted, though, that some schools were still in session when Monsters bowed and DM2 has more appeal beyond the family crowd. The Pixar hit ended up opening to a stellar $82.4M over a regular Friday-to-Sunday frame.
The new Gru tale is also going out into 500 more theaters than the last Despicable plus it has more marketing partners pushing the brand from every direction. Like Shrek before it, this is a witty toon that worked with families as well as teens and young adults and the sequel will take the grosses to a whole other level. In similar fashion, DM2 should play out as both a kidpic but also as a mainstream summer comedy for those not bringing children. That broad appeal will allow it to challenge Monsters for the summer toon crown. Now playing in 3,997 theaters, Despicable Me 2 might open to about $75M over the Friday-to-Sunday span and $115M across the full session.
A whole lot of eyes will be fixated on the box office numbers for Johnny Depp's latest big-budget tentpole The Lone Ranger. The PG-13 Western reteams the global superstar with producer Jerry Bruckheimer and director Gore Verbinski who a decade ago rewrote the books on swashbuckler flicks with Pirates of the Caribbean which did gangbusters thanks to a lavish production and Depp's patented brand of kookiness. This time another genre gets the treatment with higher salaries in play too. But Ranger faces a more uphill battle thanks to loads of negative industry buzz due to the film's exorbitant costs as well as mostly negative reviews which will sting for a film set mostly in the 1800s and likely to skew towards adults.
The package has something for men, women, and even older kids so appeal has the potential to be broad. Plus the extended Independence Day holiday is a lazier time at multiplexes where standards dip a bit so a weak star-driven film that delivers mindless popcorn entertainment can still drive in sales. People looking for escapist fun and not being critical over acting, writing, and directing skills will make up a large part of the audience. Last summer, Dark Shadows showed that moviegoers will not automatically show up to see Depp play yet another wacky character in a high-profile studio pic. It opened to just under $30M.
Westerns can still sell in this day, however they need to be good. That could be a problem for Lone Ranger plus the brand is not exactly something teens and young adults have been clamoring for on the big screen. And hefty competition will be a factor too. Opening in 3,904 theaters, The Lone Ranger might take in about $34M over the weekend and $54M over the five-day holiday session.
Comedian Kevin Hart scored a big stand-up comedy hit two years ago with Laugh At My Pain and now tries to top himself with his latest concert film Let Me Explain. Aimed solely at fans of the funnyman, the R-rated pic gets the call up to the majors. Pain debuted in 98 theaters on the weekend after Labor Day, one of the slowest times of the whole year at the box office. With Explain, the theater count has jumped nearly ninefold to 876 and it bows over the busy Independence Day holiday frame with a five-day launch.
The last pic expanded later but had great legs even when it was holding steady near the 250 theater mark ultimately grossing an impressive $7.7M. Laugh At My Pain should succeed at connecting with his large fan base though broader acceptance will be tough given the wide array of choices out there. An opening of around $6M for the weekend may result with $10M over five days.
Just like its predecessor, Monsters University spent two weekends at number one but will now get booted down the list by Gru and Tonto. Still set to be a popular choice, especially for parents with very young children thanks to the G rating, the Pixar monster hit could slide by around 45% to roughly $25M for a cume to date of $225M after its third round.
The Heat generated a fine debut and has been attracting good buzz. With no new raunchy comedies, and nothing new specifically for adult women, the holiday frame should prove to be another great session for Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy. A 40% drop would give Fox about $23M and a total of $81M.
Brad Pitt's World War Z is on its way to possibly becoming the actor's top-grossing movie ever. Competition from Depp will play a role so a 50% decline would give Paramount about $15M pushing the sum up to a solid $155M domestically while worldwide may surge past $350M.
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Read the review of the Lilo & Stitch Blu-ray Collection.
Watch the trailer for Anchorman 2. For a review of Man of Steel visit The Chief Report.
LAST YEAR Sony rebooted its signature super hero franchise and saw good results with the 3D pic The Amazing Spider-Man which debuted to $62M over the Friday-to-Sunday frame and $137M across six days. The webslinger went on to collect $262M domestically but a whopping $754M worldwide and has already prompted the dating of two more sequels keeping the rights to the character with the studio for the rest of the decade. Universal's raunchy hit Ted dropped to second with $32.2M while Pixar's summer toon Brave placed third with $19.6M. The drama Savages bowed in fourth with a respectable $16M on its way to $47.4M for Universal while Channing Tatum's Magic Mike rounded out the top five with $15.6M for Warner Bros.
This column is updated three times each week: Thursday (upcoming weekend's summary), Sunday (post-weekend analysis with estimates), and Monday night (actuals). Opinions expressed in this column are those solely of the author.
Last Updated: July 3, 2013 at 1:20PM ET
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