| THIS WEEKEND
Call it the biggest tentpole picture
ever. After years of anticipation, Star
Wars Episode I : The Phantom Menace finally
will make its way down the red carpet and into multiplexes across the United
States and Canada to the delight of millions of die-hard fans. Countless
moviegoers have camped out in front of theaters in order to get their hands
on the best and earliest tickets while millions more have stampeded onto
the web and the phone for advance ticket sales. An unprecedented amount
of publicity for everything Star Wars
(movie, soundtrack, toys, clothing, fast food tie-ins, etc) has turned
the attention of the nation towards the cinema and box office expectations
have never been higher. But how much force can The
Phantom Menace have in its opening weekend?
And how high is the limit for domestic and overseas grosses?
First the raw data. Months ago, it was reported that the Star Wars prequel would not open as wide as a normal blockbuster since George Lucas wanted his film to play only in the best-equipped auditoriums. This would restrict the amount it could gross during its opening weekend, it was thought. But with intense negotiations with exhibitors these last several weeks, Twentieth Century Fox (which will receive a distribution fee from Lucasfilm for releasing Episode I) will now open the highly-anticipated film in extremely wide fashion. According to Tom Sherak, president of distribution at Fox, The Phantom Menace will open in just under 3,000 theaters this weekend. With large complexes offering multiple screens to the prequel, the total amount of prints will be well over 5,000. By comparing prints, that puts the film ahead of most other blockbusters, but below the 7,400 tally of Godzilla from last year and the 6,100 count for The Lost World in 1997.
The largest opening in movie history occured two years ago when Steven Spielberg's sequel to the highest-grossing film in the world blasted off over the Memorial Day weekend. The Lost World, playing in 3,281 theaters, screened on Thursday night with preview grosses of $2.6M and then opened nationwide with daily grosses of $21.6M on Friday, $24.4M on Saturday, $26.1M on Sunday, and $18M on Monday the holiday. That gave the dinosequel a heart-stopping $92.7M for the entire frame and $72.1M over the standard Friday-to-Sunday period. The Lost World has continued to hold the all-time records for biggest opening, biggest Fri-Sun gross, and largest single day tally (Sunday). So if $26.1M is the biggest one-day sale in box office history, which of The Phantom Menace's opening days can match or exceed it? Fortunately for Lucas, his picture has a few commercial advantages over his pal Spielberg's record-breaker. Despite having about 700 fewer total screens, the Star Wars prequel has more anticipation behind it than The Lost World did. Also, ticket prices are somewhat higher now especially since many theaters quietly raised them during the spring to take full advantage of the Jedi-led summer bonanza. And a very important scenario that Episode I will benefit from is expanded hours of operation by selected cinemas. Demand is so enormous, and fans are so obsessed, that various theaters are offering screenings 24 hours a day. This could have a deep impact on national daily grosses since theaters that would ordinarily offer 10-12 showtimes per day will instead be giving consumers 20-24 opportunities to buy tickets each day.
Wednesday May 19th, the opening day, is sure to generate a monumental amount of cash from tickets already bought, and those to be purchased that day. The Star Wars prequel could conceivably beat The Lost World's single-day record on its first day of release. $26M on a Wednesday while kids are scheduled to be in school would be a huge achievement, but with screenings beginning at 12:01 AM and lasting all day long, and with true fans stopping all other life activities for opening day, the total available seats should come very close to being completely sold out. The value of being there in its first day of release and forever holding that May 19th ticket stub is immeasurable for so many Star Wars devotees. Seeing the prequel for the first time on May 20th or after would be simply unacceptable to them. The current benchmark for a Wednesday opening is $17.4M from 2,880 theaters in July 1996. A new record is sure to be set by Anakin Skywalker and pals. Another movie that Episode I can be compared to is of course the last film that caused this level of Star Wars hysteria - 1983's Return of the Jedi. Episode VI opened over the Memorial Day weekend frame in 1,002 locations grossing $6.2M on Wednesday, its first day of release, and a record-shattering $30.5M over the four-day holiday weekend. In an era of modest ticket prices before the multiplexing boom, Jedi averaged a phenomenal $6,207 on opening day and an eye-popping $30,430 over the Friday-to-Monday debut frame. By comparison, The Lost World averaged $27,480 during its comparable 1997 Memorial Day weekend opening. Truly the Force is with George Lucas, and always has been.
Looking beyond the opening frame, The Phantom Menace will have a few weeks of clear sailing since competing studios have given Fox clearance to run rampant over the box office in late May and early June. The quality of the movie and the fans' level of enjoyment will determine what sort of legs it will have. The Memorial Day weekend event films of the last two years both grossed about 40% of their entire domestic hauls over their initial Friday-to-Monday debut frames indicating frontloaded sales driven by hype followed by massive erosion due in part to negative reactions from movie lovers. No film, not even Star Wars, is exempt from this possibility. If the fans like it, expect strong sustained business. But if too many opening weekend ticket buyers are disappointed or tell their friends that Episode I is not as good as the original trilogy, some bad word-of-mouth could spread. It may not stop people from going to see it initially, but could affect how many return trips fans make over the course of the summer. Still, The Phantom Menace has about three weeks where the marketplace will be all its own before the target audience becomes distracted by other promising summer flicks. Projecting a weekend gross for Star Wars Episode I is obviously tricky since its release is so unorthodox when looking at showtimes and intense consumer demand. Given all the variables involved, The Phantom Menace could open with about $45M on Wednesday and Thursday, plus about $85M over the traditional Friday-to-Sunday period giving the George Lucas epic roughly $130M over the five-day opening frame. That would allow the prequel to set brand new records for opening day, opening weekend, and single day with the greatest of ease. Moviegoer reactions from coast to coast will determine the long-term fate, but Episode I may be able to haul in an incredible amount in the vicinity of $475M by the end of its domestic run.
As for the film's overseas potential, arguments can be made for it reaching a sum either greater than or less than domestic. Historically, all Star Wars films have grossed less in the international marketplace than in the domestic one. Even the Special Editions released in 1997 performed much better stateside than overseas causing many to believe that Star Wars is not as popular around the world as it is in the United States. But numbers can mislead. The film industry's infrastructure across the globe was significantly less developed in the 1970's and 1980's when the original films were released so they could never bring in sales at the level of domestic. And the Special Editions were re-releases of movies that existed on video that all fans have seen already and cannot be compared to the worldwide lure of a brand new Star Wars story with today's level of special effects. Also, the international potential of Episode I goes beyond the overall popularity of the Star Wars phenomenon. It is very much related to market conditions in all the individual countries during the first months of release. The overseas box office is on life support right now. It desperately needs huge, mainstream, action blockbusters like The Phantom Menace to get back on track. Movies like The Matrix, Entrapment, and The Mummy will satisfy some of the hunger for product across the planet as they will precede the Star Wars prequel in most territories. Competitors have had ample time to program their big films away from Lucas in all the major markets giving it a wide berth. But Episode I begins invading overseas multiplexes next month and will attract sales from fans of the series as well as moviegoers just looking for an exhilarating summer ride of special effects and action. Most recent thrill rides of this sort like Independence Day, Men in Black, Godzilla, Mission: Impossible, Deep Impact, and the Jurassic Park duo all grossed more internationally than they did domestically. They promise moviegoers tons of excitement, open ahead of many other big-budget summer items, and clean up around the world. The Phantom Menace should do the same. If Star Wars Episode I goes on to generate a conservative $600M overseas, it should successfully achieve a worldwide cume of over $1 billion.
Believe it or not, another film opens nationwide this weekend. DreamWorks, hoping that not everybody wants to see Darth Maul unleash his fury, releases its counterprogramming title The Love Letter on Friday. The romantic comedy stars Kate Capshaw, Tom Selleck, and Ellen DeGeneres and is aimed squarely at mature women. There will indeed be some demand by certain segments of the moviegoing public for a non-Star Wars picture, but The Love Letter does not pack enough firepower to generate a strong opening. It may pick up some traffic just because it's new and out there. A small debut of around $5M should be in the works. Holdovers will be hoping to pickup spillover business from the incoming Phantom Menace audience. The overall increase in traffic could benefit other movies as well. The Mummy is well-positioned to munch on the leftovers and might decline by 35% giving it a $16M take in its third frame. Entrapment is holding up well and might also be a popular choice among movie patrons sold out of Episode I. Dipping 25%, the Fox thriller may take in another $7M over the frame. Sophomore period piece A Midsummer Night's Dream could see a moderate drop as its opening weekend was not as strong as some had expected. The Fox Searchlight film is still positioned as an alternative to Star Wars for mature women and the distributor is hoping that mothers drop their kids off to see the Force while they check out a little Shakespeare. A 25% slide to $3M could result.
Read what fans from around the world are saying about the box office potential of Star Wars : Episode I in Box Office Guru's Phantom Menace Reader Forum. New comments are published each day until opening day, May 19th. Beginning on May 20th, check back to get daily updates and analysis on Episode I's opening gross all weekend long as George Lucas once again reaches for the record books. Take this week's NEW Reader Survey on the most surprising film at the box office this year. Be sure to read the Weekly Rewind column which reports on the performance of limited release films this year. For a review of The Mummy visit Chief's Movie Review Page.
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This column is updated three times each week : Thursday (upcoming weekend's summary), Sunday (post-weekend analysis with estimates), and Monday night (actuals). Source : EDI, Exhibitor Relations. Opinions expressed in this column are those solely of the author. Last Updated : May 18, 1999 at 9:00AM
EDT Written by Gitesh Pandya |
