Phantom Menace Reader Forum
Tuesday - Box Office Guru - May 18, 1999
1. "The advance ticket sales have proved the intense interest in this. Look for a 450 million domestic run. I believe this will be re-released this Christmas to try and break Titanic."
- Scott Madsen (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
2. "If Leonardo Dicaprio was playing the role of Obi Wan Kenobi in this film, this discussion would have ended a long time ago�"
- Anders Elmgren (Stockholm, Sweden)
3. "Having been one of those lucky people to have seen more than my fare share of the Star Wars Episode 1 - The Phantom Menace, I can only say WOW."
- Louis Turfrey
4. "What strikes me when reading the forum is the amount of hostility some of the force-loving Star Wars fans can exhibit! Phantom Menace hasn't even opened yet! I hope they can be honest if it isn't the greatest film ever made, as some of them are convinced it will be. There seem to be two camps: Titanic lovers who are convinced PM won't break the record, and Titanic haters who are convinced PM will break it with ease. As a lover of BOTH films, and a huge fan of Lucas the man (as opposed to Cameron the man), my bet is Titanic will remain number one. Some of the readers point to the Star Wars re-issue's $138M gross as proof that PM will break records. But don't forget that the Empire and Jedi re-issues both grossed dramatically less, with Jedi only managing $45M total! What's making me nervous with PM is that Lucas initially limited the amount of theaters showing it, but now, coinciding with the bad reviews, it's getting released on 3000+ theaters, even ones that aren't top notch. This reminds me of Godzilla: if you doubt your films' legs, open it as wide as possible to get as much money as possible before word of mouth spreads. The hype is also killing it, at least it has for me. The trailers make it look like a remake of New Hope on a $100M dollar budget. McGregor's and Neeson's lack of enthusiasm doesn't help, either. And considering the fact that some of the bad advance word is coming from die hards, things don't look too good. My prediction is $120M opening (Friday to Sunday), strong second weekend (Memorial Day), then big declines, especially if the die hards are so turned off that it cuts into their repeat biz. It'll top off with about $400 - $450. Let's face it, the kids will be lining up, but at kiddy prices. Huge, but not Titanic."
- Joe (New York, New York)
5. "Please! Let's worry about enjoying the movie for the music,effects,and history. I don't want to hear any more talk about Titantic records or bad puns relating to sinking the Titantic. Titantic was Megasuccessful because it struck a chord of fascination in all of us. Star Wars movies have the same effect. I hope that we realize what's really important. Lucas has granted our wishes and created a tangible history lesson that is going to create a new line of Star wars enthusiasts. I have a six year old that is learning to write cursive by copying Star Wars names. Let's forget about any records and enjoy this film a half-dozen times. ENJOY!"
- Gillian J Jackson
6. "I just got back from my honeymoon where my wife & I had the chance to watch "The Matrix." I've heard more good things about this film than any other viewed film in recent times. However, I found myself very dissappointed. But, I told my wife that if SW1-TPM was even close to being as good as "The Matrix" then I think that SW1-TPM will do great and I will be happy!"
- "JustWed-LB"
7. "I think The Phantom Meanace will beat Titanic out simply because TPM is a family movie and younger people will be seeing it many times. "
- Laura Morales
8. "I cant comprehend why is there a feud between the Phantom Menace and Titanic? Just cos a person may like one it doesnt mean it should preclude them from liking the other.It seems to me, those who have watched Titanic seem to hate the possibility of their beloved movie being beaten at the box-office. It really doesnt matter.No matter what, we the viewer win. These movies are out to be enjoyed so dont let the box - office race faze u out. Personally, i really do hope Phantom Menace really rakes it in cos in this current atmosphere anything less than 500 million might be perceived as a failure. I've seen both the trailers and i liked them. I dont find anything wrong with them. The fact they have a lot of digital fx seems to have garnered bad reviews. The fact remains, digital fx are a natural progression in the evolution visual fx and Star Wars was always in the forefront of this technology. Its funny though, that despite the fact many claim to dismiss the movie before its even out on the theatres for a review, they still will end up watching the Phantom Menace and are interested to give their views here. Both trailers are only 4 minutes long and yet people have taken a scalpel to dissect it. Lets not be over analytical at the trailers..they are just that..trailers. Lets just enjoy the movie when it comes out..I , for one, will.My prediction?..It will break records and i have a feeling its going to be very very good..Star Wars has always been story oriented."
- Suresh (Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia)
9. "The only reason that TPM might not set the record for the opening day is that it will be in a limited # of theaters."
- Tom Gerling
10. "The Phantom Menace is going to be the most anticipated movie of this century. Many reviewers disagree but this new movie will provide groundbreaking special FX and a plot like no other. Ultimately, this will prove to smash all other movies into dust."
- George Doyle
11. "Naturally, The Phantom Menace will be huge globally. But it's unlikely to beat Titanic's incredible gross for the same reason A New Hope became the biggest hit of all time. Titanic was a natural phenomenon. People who don't normally go see movies went to see it and they told their friends to go. However, everyone has already decided whether to see The Phantom Menace or not because Star Wars is an established franchise, and therefore its appeal is, compared to Titanic, limited. Remember, Titanic doubled Jurassic Park's box office record of $900 million. In the end, I think The Phantom Menace will beat Titanic's domestic $600 million gross due to multiple viewings by the fans, but will not touch Titanic's international $1.8 billion."
- "Client1"
12. "Episode One will pull in $133 million in its first five days. It will gross $235 million its first 12 days (through Memorial Day weekend). The total gross for The Phantom Menace will be $470 million. The film that will knock it from its number one weekend slot will be Big Daddy on June 25th. Star Wars will still be in the top three on July 4th weekend. I am getting in line on Monday, see you there."
- Geof Nicholson (Wilmington, North Carolina)
13. "Yes it will beat Titanic.Titanics success was made by women dragging their men to see it 2 or 3 times.TPM appeals to every Man Woman and child.If it's as good as they say it is most kids 5 to 16 will see it 2 or 3 times.And the Die Hards will see it 5 or 6 times.the casual moviegoer will see it 1 maybe 2 times.Obviously it will break the first week gross by alot.It will be big for 2 months straight.Not to mention most cinemas are charging an extra dollar or two for the first 5 or 6 weeks.So with those things in mind and a few others.My answer is yes it will be the biggest film ever.(until the next one)."
- Brian L.
14. "I believe it will make it into the second place slot of movies, but the Titanic milestone will be a bit tougher to surpass. I say tougher because the movie may not have the same broad appeal that Titanic had, particularly with the younger female demographic, who were largely responsible for driving the movies "Titanic" numbers. I do think that compensating patronage demonstrated by the younger and older male demographic may very well compensate for this comparative gender difference in audience patronage. Star Wars will appeal to an overall larger audience because of the epic saga of the New Hope trilogy which touched an entire generation of movie goers. Those fans will seek out the prequel movie and see it, for certain. The question is, will enough of the type of fans who have the time and money to see it repeatedly actually do so. I for one, know that I will make the time to do so. "Heywanawongaah" - Best guess translation of quote from Jabba's counsel when asking Luke Skywalker what he wanted while entering the palace in TESB."
- George Mueller
15. "The current number 1 movie, is Titanic. Earning $1814.8 million dollars, it's made twice as much as its nearest competitor (Jurassic Park). Three steps down, Star Wars (the original) with $783.6 million. Initially, I don't think that TPM will pass Titanic, but in the long run, it's a sure winner. My predictions for total earnings (the long run) $1.3+ billion. Opening weekend, sometimes decides the long term fate of a movie. My predictions? Very easy, TPM will not only have the number one opening weekend sales, but will keep it. The only thing that will take TPM from the opening weekend box office record, is another Lucasfilm Star Wars creation. My prediction, $80+ million."
- Mike Richey
16. "'TPM' won't crush 'Titanic' at the box office and who really cares if it does. That doesn't prove a damn thing. 'Gone with the Wind', 'Star Wars' and 'Titanic' are movie phenomena because they caught everyone by surprise ie. they didn't have too many pre-conceived notions before entering the theater. They left feeling good and wanted to see more on the big screen while they could. 'TPM' will be an incredible DVD...someday."
- Brian Pesti (Dayton, Ohio)
17. "In my opinion the income of Titanic will seem like milk money to TPM's profitt . Acually i expect more from Lucas and the Force because he has all the more experience and money to put into TPM it's obvious that I would expect more from the Force, the more Jedi there is the more Force there ought ta be . "
- "The Dude"
18. "Hello, I think that TPM will only appeal to SW fans. Other curious people will see it once, but the general public won't love it. Its going to make a lot of money from obsessive fans, but it probably won't beat Titanic in the box office. However, adding the other profits from TPM, its total gross should be much greater than Titanic's."
- Connie Chen
19. "The Phantom Menace does not sound right, I predict that it will make $700 million and the true name will be 'The 3 Jedi' when the movie title appears to the public. Love it or hate it, its all balance in the end!"
- Kevin Bemis
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Box Office Guru will feature new reader comments daily in the Phantom Menace Reader Forum beginning on May 1st and continuing until the May 19th release date. Then, check back for daily box office reports on the performance of Episode I beginning on May 20th.
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