Weekend Box Office (December 11 - 13, 2009)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND After a lackluster post-turkey frame, cash registers at the multiplexes should rebound as two promising films aimed at different age groups enter wide release ahead of what should be long healthy runs. Disney expands its animated entry The Princess and the Frog nationwide aiming for kids while Warner Bros. launches Clint Eastwood's latest Oscar contender Invictus with Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon which should play to mature adults. With holiday shopping becoming a greater distraction in mid-December, don't expect fireworks in the marketplace but films are certainly marking their territory now for what will be marathon runs during the weeks ahead.

Following a special 16-day exclusive run that will generate over $2.8M from just a pair of theaters, The Princess and the Frog expands nationwide on Friday allowing families across North America to enjoy Disney's latest animated feature film. The G-rated pic about a young New Orleans woman, her handsome prince beau, and some magical mix-ups, has generated plenty of excitement thanks to the exclusive run in New York and Los Angeles which was meant to event-ize what on paper is an old fashioned cartoon movie. Today's kids have been raised on a steady diet of computer animation thanks to Pixar, DreamWorks, and all the copycats. Plus 2009 has been a coming out year for 3D with all sorts of films aimed at children popping out in three dimensions, and putting the extra hurt on the wallets of parents.

So amassing crowds for a traditional toon was no easy task but the studio has done it. Excitement is there, Disney princesses are loved by young girls, and the filmmakers delivered a solid and entertaining product. Appeal should be stronger with moms and daughters at first, but the boys may eventually follow. The studio's brand name will be key here and with November's trio of kidpics now fading away, the time is right for Princess to dominate with this audience. The pic will keep hopping through the holiday weeks ahead and join the century club in no time. Landing in over 3,300 theaters, The Princess and the Frog may debut with around $26M this weekend.

52 weeks after his last film Gran Torino platformed in just six theaters, Clint Eastwood reteams with his favorite studio Warner Bros. for the wide release of the awards contender Invictus headlined by Oscar winner Morgan Freeman who plays Nelson Mandela circa 1995. The PG-13 film also stars Matt Damon as the captain of the South African rugby team which is trying to win the World Cup, and unite a racially divided nation. Eastwood has defied the odds over and over again making all kinds of films work commercially and/or creatively. Gran Torino was shut out of the Oscar race, but it did manage to become the top-grossing film of his legendary career with a $29.5M wide opening and $148.1M total cume.

But even pictures that see Eastwood stay behind the camera perform well and they always have legs. Invictus should be no different. The starpower is solid meaning the opening weekend could be stronger than Changeling ($9.4M), Flags of our Fathers ($10.2M) or Mystic River ($10.4M). Freeman as Mandela is certainly dream casting. Reviews will matter and critics have been impressed, though not ecstatic. The post-Apartheid flick will play to an older mature audience though Damon is being counted on to pull in some young adults too. Teens will look at this as a history class and run the opposite way. But most films in the marketplace are eroding meaning The Blind Side should be the only major competition with its sports theme and mature storyline. Opening in 2,125 locations, Invictus may debut to about $15M this weekend but will have long-term playability through the holiday season. If it scores some major Golden Globe nominations next week, it could finish up with six or seven times that amount in the end.

Following two weeks in second place and a frame on top of the heap, Sandra Bullock's surprise sensation The Blind Side looks to drop down to third place this weekend in its fourth lap. The actual decline should still remain manageable, possibly 40%. That would give Warner Bros. about $12M boosting the cume to a stellar $146M.

The front-loaded smash The Twilight Saga: New Moon will continue to see rapid erosion in its numbers. A 55% fall to roughly $7M should result putting the Summit blockbuster at $266M and counting.

Get earlier box office updates and analysis by following BoxOfficeGuru.com on Twitter.

Check the UPDATED chart for the Top Hits of 2009. For a review of The Princess and the Frog visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR Sci-fi ruled the weekend as the Keanu Reeves pic The Day the Earth Stood Still opened at number one with a strong $30.5M for Fox on its way to $79.4M domestically and $231M worldwide. The holiday comedy Four Christmases fell to second after two weeks on top with $13.1M. Rounding out the top five were the single-word-titled films Twilight with $8M, Bolt with $7.5M, and Australia with $4.2M. Overture's Nothing Like the Holidays bowed poorly in seventh with $3.5M on its way to a weak $7.5M. But faring even worse was the animated flop Delgo which opened in 2,160 theaters but grossed a puny $511,920 in 18th place for a dismal $237 average.

Marketplace - Shop for DVDs, electronics, books, and posters at discounted prices:

LAST WEEKEND's TOP 20

Last Updated: December 10, 2009 at 10:45AM ET