Weekend Box Office (December 4 - 6, 2009)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Four low-profile films go into wide release on Friday showing no signs of booting New Moon and The Blind Side from the top spots on the North American box office chart. Spending always contracts on the weekend after the Thanksgiving holiday feast so studios don't risk releasing any major movies with potential. Over the last five years, ticket sales for the Top 20 have fallen by an average of 47% on the weekend following the turkey session. Things should be similar this time.

Leading the crop of weak new releases is the heist pic Armored starring Matt Dillon, Jean Reno, and Laurence Fishburne. The PG-13 film about armored car guards that rip off their own company will play to a young male audience serving as counter-programming to the sheer dominance that estrogen films have shown over the last couple of weeks. Armored has had decent marketing behind it, but this is not one with must-see buzz so just those in need of a quick testosterone boost will apply. Breaking into 1,900 theaters, Armored could make off with about $8M.

What happens when the webslinger and the Prince of Persia are cast as siblings? You get the Lionsgate drama Brothers co-starring Natalie Portman as the woman in between. The R-rated pic about a Marine presumed dead while in Afghanistan is too serious of a film at this time of year and demand isn't strong for films about what American soldiers go through in that region of the world. In bigger effects-driven tentpoles, these actors can sell tickets. But not here. In fact, Maguire's only commercial hit outside of the Spider-Man franchise has been 2003's Seabiscuit. Male-skewing pics are lacking right now, but this one is not strong enough to take advantage of the void. Opening in 2,088 locations, Brothers could debut to around $6M.

Robert De Niro plays a widower trying to reconnect with his grown kids in the holiday film Everybody's Fine from Miramax. Drew Barrymore and Kate Beckinsale co-star in the PG-13 pic which should be a weak player in this weekend's derby. The core audience will be made up of older adults with a female skew. With Sandra Bullock having a lock on that crowd with her well-liked crowdpleaser The Blind Side, Fine should face difficulty attracting sales. Plus with Miramax being shut down, the marketing push behind De Niro's latest has been light. Reviews will make a difference and so far critics haven't been too impressed. Debuting in 2,200 theaters, Everybody's Fine may find itself with around $5M this weekend.

Full Circle Releasing takes a big chance going nationwide with its creepy college comedy Transylmania which targets teens and young adults. The R-rated pic boasts no starpower and should play only to those that have seen everything else and don't want to invest time into studying for final exams. A debut outside of the top ten is likely. Landing in 1,007 locations, Transylmania may debut to around $2M.

Sandra Bullock waited patiently for two weeks as the box office bridesmaid with her surprise football hit The Blind Side, but will steal the spotlight this time scoring a number one finish for the frame. The Warner Bros. release enjoyed a sharp 18% gain in its second weekend helped by holiday moviegoing. Competition from new films won't be much of an issue since the pigskin pic is playing older and more female while two of the new pics will cater to young men. A 45% drop could be in order which would be the low end of the range of declines that films see on the post-turkey session. That would give Sandy and company around $22M and a robust 17-day total of $129M. By the end of the year, The Blind Side will likely surpass The Proposal to become the top grosser ever for the rebounding actress.

The vampires, werewolves, and mortals of The Twilight Saga: New Moon will suffer another big drop, though not one as huge as the 70% tumble last weekend. Still, the Summit release is set to crush the quarter-billion mark and bump 1989's Batman off the list of Top 50 All-Time Blockbusters. Of course, the first Caped Crusader pic attracted a much bigger audience since movie tickets cost just over $4 on average two decades ago. Look for New Moon to fall by 60% to about $17M putting Bella and her pals in second place. The cume after 17 days would soar to $256M.

Sony's disaster flick 2012 should witness a 55% drop to roughly $8M boosting the cume to $150M. The family comedy Old Dogs got off to a slow start last weekend for Disney and may slide by 55% to $7.5M this weekend for a sum of $35M in 12 days.

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Check the UPDATED chart for the Top Hits of 2009 with New Moon at number six.

For a NEW review of The Princess and the Frog visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR Moviegoers made the holiday comedy Four Christmases the top choice for a second straight weekend with $16.8M leading a characteristically slow post-turkey frame led by seven holdover films. Twilight followed with $13M in its third weekend with Disney's Bolt taking third with $9.8M. Rounding out the top five were Australia and Quantum of Solace with $7.1M and $6.8M, respectively. Opening poorly in eighth was the Lionsgate actioner Punisher: War Zone with $4.3M and a weak $1,703 average. Sony's music drama Cadillac Records fared moderately well in ninth with a $3.4M debut from a narrow release for a $5,015 average. Final grosses reached just over $8M each.

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LAST WEEKEND's TOP 20

Last Updated: December 3, 2009 at 11:30AM ET