Weekend Box Office (November 6 - 8, 2009)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND The holiday movie season kicks off with an assortment of four new releases led by Disney's 3D motion capture pic A Christmas Carol starring Jim Carrey taking on a number of roles. Sure to open with far fewer tickets sold are the supernatural thriller The Fourth Kind, Cameron Diaz's suspense drama The Box, and George Clooney's war dramedy The Men Who Stare at Goats. Overall, the North American box office looks to lag behind last year's comparable frame.

Ace Ventura himself is back to rule the box office with what is sure to be his seventh and final number one hit of the decade. Robert Zemeckis, Hollywood's own motion capture boy, directs a new version of A Christmas Carol which finds Carrey playing Ebenezer Scrooge, younger Scrooges, and the Ghosts of Christmas Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come in a digitally animated 3D extravaganza. The PG-rated film will appeal to family audiences looking for some early Christmas cheer and also literary buffs interested in seeing how technology can bring to the screen what could be the most faithful adaptation yet of this classic story.

But is it too faithful to score at the multiplexes? The film has its own battle between art and commerce. The final product is incredibly close to the original story which was just a collection of words. That's a great artistic achievement, but will today's kids raised on funny Pixar films and 3D toons filled with comedy and zaniness be into a more serious story where one of the funniest men working in Hollywood doesn't actually make the audience laugh that often? The opening weekend won't be too affected, but the long-term prospects may take a hit if kids tell their friends that they enjoyed the 3D effects, but didn't chuckle very much.

Christmas-themed movies and animated kidpics often open in early November in order to take advantage of the two-month holiday window when audiences are in the mood for such material. Openings include $29M for 2002's The Santa Clause 2, $31.1M for 2003's Elf, $23.3M for 2004's The Polar Express ($30.6M over 5 days), $40M for 2005's Chicken Little, and $38M for 2007's Bee Movie. Carol has the advantage of higher ticket prices due to its 3D theaters and IMAX venues. And those with yuletide themes tend to end their runs with about five times their opening weekend gross. Flying into more than 3,500 venues, A Christmas Carol could collect about $41M this weekend.

Universal is hoping that fans of the creepy ghost story Paranormal Activity will gravitate over to its alien abduction thriller The Fourth Kind which opens one week after Halloween targeting those who still are in the market for a good non-gory scare. The PG-13 pic stars Resident Evil gal Milla Jovovich and is tapping into the love moviegoers have for true stories by marketing itself as being 'based on the actual case studies.' Trailers and commercials mix elements of a fictional story with seemingly real archival footage of actual people who have encountered aliens. In September, Kate Beckinsale stepped out of the Underworld franchise to star in the horror flick Whiteout which took place in Antarctica but was rejected by ticket buyers. Milla will fare better, but only by so much.

Competition from Paranormal which is still attracting sizable crowds will be a major factor. And some who have just seen that no-budget smash may pass on a film that has such a similar look and feel. The marketing push on Fourth has been good and aside from Paranormal, it really does stand out among all the other films in release right now. The rating will help bring in younger teens always looking for a good spook when the school week ends. Freaking out moviegoers in 2,529 sites, The Fourth Kind could scare up around $11M this weekend.

Presenting a bizarre what-if scenario, the suspense thriller The Box headlined by Cameron Diaz offers a story about a mysterious box with a button that if pushed would give a person a million dollars and simultaneously take the life of someone they don't know. James Marsden and Frank Langella co-star. Warner Bros. has a tough sell here as the storyline is creepy, and not in a commercially-friendly way. Diaz is the only star that can sell tickets so the studio is relying on her to show some pull. She can score in comedy and action, but she has no real track record in the genre as a lead. Competition will be fierce as there is no shortage of spooky flicks out there. The studio knows that reviews won't help so it didn't screen Box for critics. Opening in 2,635 locations, The Box could find itself with about $8M this weekend.

For a more mature adult audience is the latest feature involving Iraq - The Men Who Stare At Goats. The R-rated pic stars George Clooney, Ewan McGregor, Jeff Bridges, and Kevin Spacey and tells of a journalist that follows a psychic hired by the U.S. military to help its missions in the Middle East. The Overture release has two main hurdles to overcome. First, moviegoers don't have much of an appetite for films about American soldiers fighting in that region. It's been overdone. Second, reviews have been mixed at best and aren't strong enough to provide much help since this pic will skew to an older and more politically-minded crowd. They read reviews. Starpower is decent, but not enough to make this a must-see plus Goats lacks the overall buzz needed to become a big hit. The trailer purposely avoids any mention of 'Iraq' or 'Middle East' hoping not to repel audiences, and instead relies on comedy and starpower in hopes of attracting people who enjoy Coen brothers films. Invading around 2,200 theaters, The Men Who Stare at Goats might open to about $7M.

Stepping into 18 theaters in limited release, Lionsgate should see sparkling results for its urban drama Precious which is sure to be a major contender during awards season this winter. Based on a popular novel, the R-rated film tells of an overweight and abused teen pregnant with her second child who enrolls in an alternative school in order to better her difficult life. The well-reviewed film has won audience awards at both the Sundance and Toronto film festivals and received a 15-minute standing ovation at Cannes in May. Media moguls Oprah Winfrey and Tyler Perry got on board after the film was made and are lending their influential support as executive producers. The distributor has patiently been building commercial interest in the pic all year and the payoff is just around the corner. Precious will expand to more cities nationwide in the coming weeks and should be a long-term performer at the box office despite telling a disturbing story that will be unsettling for some.

After topping the global box office last weekend, Michael Jackson's This Is It should face a steep decline in its second round. Most fans interested in what last week was promoted as a limited run have already come out, and now that the run has been extended there is no urgent need to see the pic this weekend. A 50% drop would give the Sony release about $11.5M for the frame and a 12-day cume of $54M.

Halloween has passed so Paranormal Activity will now face a new test. How well can it hold up now that moviegoers are not in the mood for a scary film as much? A 40% dip could result as the Paramount release nears the century mark. That would leave a weekend tally of $9M lifting the remarkable cume to $98M.

Get earlier box office updates and analysis by following BoxOfficeGuru.com on Twitter. For a review of A Christmas Carol visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR Paramount and DreamWorks kicked off what would become three consecutive weekends of $60M+ openers with its animated sequel Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa which bowed to $63.1M. The jungle toon went on to gross $180M domestically and a towering $602M worldwide. Quantum of Solace and Twilight followed in the weeks ahead with smash debuts. Opening well in second was the raunchy comedy Role Models with $19.2M for Universal on its way to $67.3M. Following its two-week stint as valedictorian, High School Musical 3 fell to third with $9.2M. Rounding out the top five were Changeling with $7.3M and Zack and Miri Make a Porno with $6.3M. Debuting poorly in sixth was the comedy Soul Men starring Samuel L. Jackson and the late Bernie Mac with $5.4M on its way to a weak $12.1M finish for MGM.

Marketplace - Shop for DVDs, electronics, books, and posters at discounted prices:

LAST WEEKEND's TOP 20

Last Updated: November 4, 2009 at 9:45PM ET