Weekend Box Office (October 26 - 28, 2012)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND A red hot October nears its conclusion with a crowded frame that sees four new wide releases cramming into North American multiplexes. Horror fans looking for a scare get the 3D sequel Silent Hill: Revelation, science-fiction lovers get the star-studded epic Cloud Atlas, teen comedy comes from Fun Size, and the surfing pic Chasing Mavericks hopes to not get swept away given all the other options out there. The overall box office should cool down for one week with the top ten likely to fall short of the $100M mark for the first time in five weeks. But a November rebound is just around the corner.

Six and a half years after its predecessor became a solid number one hit, Silent Hill: Revelation extends the franchise right into the faces of fans with a 3D edition. The R-rated film is taking aim directly at horror lovers on the weekend before Halloween and senses vulnerability in the latest installment from today's most popular fright series, Paranormal Activity 4, which will likely collapse in its second frame after a top spot bow. That sequel and Sinister should collect a combined $13M or so this weekend from the same crowd targeted by Revelation. The first Hill debuted to a stellar $20.2M in April 2006 and so much time has passed that its followup does not necessarily have a built-in audience to tap into. And higher 3D prices may deter some folks. But the pumpkin holiday should help short-term sales and spark some interest with older teens and young adults this weekend before fading quickly after October 31. Open Road goes wide into 2,933 locations and could scare up about $14M worth of business this weekend.

Warner Bros. releases one of the most experimental big-budget studio films out there with the sci-fi epic Cloud Atlas, the latest from the Wachowski siblings (formerly branded in their credits as The Wachowski Brothers). The R-rated film presents multiple inter-connected stories taking place over a span of 500 years including past, present, and future. Tom Hanks, Halle Berry, Hugh Grant, Susan Sarandon, Hugo Weaving, and Jim Broadbent are among the cast with actors playing multiple characters across race and even gender lines. At nearly three hours long, and with a crowded marketplace that makes getting a second screen very difficult, Atlas will have a few less showtimes per weekend than all others.

Reviews have been mixed, but generally on the positive side. The ambitious saga should play best with sci-fi purists who want an original story and do not need a known brand to be transferred to the big screen. It should open more like Looper and less like Prometheus. Mainstream appeal is questionable since it is highly unorthodox and not for those who just want to turn their brains off and have something easy to digest on a Friday or Saturday night. A big investment in thinking is required. As a result, the studio is not opening as wide as one would expect for a costly film with big stars. The Wachowskis built up a large fan base with their Matrix trilogy, though some have dropped out after being disappointed by the pair of 2003 sequels and 2008's Speed Racer - their only non-Neo film over the last 15 years. Audiences will probably be polarized after seeing it making the long-term outlook tough. Landing in 2,008 theaters, including IMAX venues, Cloud Atlas could debut with about $13M.

Paramount and Nickelodeon go after the teen and tween crowd with its PG-13 comedy Fun Size which marks the leading lady movie debut of Victoria Justice, star of the cable network's popular series Victorious. The story of a high school girl who loses her kid brother while sneaking out to a Halloween party is being dropped into the marketplace at the right time. Had the studio actually had some confidence in the title, it would have slotted it earlier in the month so it could take advantage of multiple weeks of play before the pumpkin holiday passed by. Most films in theaters right now are playing to older adults, or to younger trick-or-treaters so competition will come mostly from the scary movies out now and those have R ratings. The studio is giving Fun Size an aggressive release with over 2,800 theaters but the weekend gross may turn out to be roughly $9M.

Those autumn moviegoers in the mood to catch a wave get to try out the new Gerard Butler flick Chasing Mavericks. The PG-rated story of a teen boy with dreams of riding one of the biggest waves in the world will have a tough time given all the competition and the fact that it is not generating much must-see buzz. Starpower is not that formidable and the 300 star is likely to see a bigger audience for his next sports pic, the upcoming soccer dad film Playing for Keeps in December. Opening in about 2,000 theaters, Chasing Mavericks might collect around $5M this weekend. A spot in the top ten is not guaranteed.

Fourth chapters of horror franchises always fall apart on the second weekend so look for a huge plunge for chart-topper Paranormal Activity 4. The last installment crashed by 66% and this one had earlier Thursday night 9pm shows added into its opening weekend figure so a larger 70% fall may result. That would give the low cost Paramount release about $9M for the session and a ten-day cume of $43M.

Oscar hopeful Argo has a legitimate shot at capturing the number one spot in its third weekend if it can continue to hold up as well as it has and if none of the new releases scores big. Regardless of its position, another strong collection is likely with a possible 20% dip to about $13M for a cume to date of $62M.

Fox's sequel Taken 2 may see a 45% decline to around $7M raising the total to $116M while Sony's hit toon Hotel Transylvania once again has no new direct competitors taking away its kids audience. A 25% slide to roughly $10M could result for an impressive sum of $131M overall.

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Watch the NEW trailer for Iron Man 3. Check the chart for the Top October Openings.

For a review of Argo visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR DreamWorks Animation took some heat with its top spot debut of Puss in Boots which grossed $34.1M over the pre-Halloween frame. But the Paramount release enjoyed great legs and rebounded to a final domestic tally of $149.3M and a hefty global haul of $555M. The studio took the silver too with former champ Paranormal Activity 3 which tumbled down to $18.1M in its sophomore frame. Fox's sci-fi thriller In Time opened in third with a mild $12.1M on its way to $37.5M and $174M worldwide. Paramount again showed up in fourth with its dance remake Footloose with $5.5M and Johnny Depp's new film The Rum Diary flopped in fifth with a debut of just $5.1M for FilmDistrict. It ended with $13.1M.

LAST WEEKEND's TOP 20

Last Updated: October 25, 2012 at 1:00PM ET

Watch Gitesh Pandya's weekly box office preview on CNN International airing live each Thursday at 7:40pm ET.