Weekend Box Office (October 5 - 7, 2012)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Liam Neeson leads a trio of new films heading into wide release on Friday as the North American box office should continue to show signs of bouncing back as it enters the final quarter of 2012. Fox's kidnapping sequel Taken 2 finds the Irish actor once again playing a former CIA agent with lethal skills who must rescue a loved one abducted overseas by Albanians. The setting shifts from Paris to Istanbul and the abductees this time are himself and his ex-wife.

Taken shocked the film industry in 2009 when it opened to $24.7M which included a steep 69% plunge on Super Bowl Sunday, its third day of release. It was a bold move on the part of the studio since conventional wisdom dictated that the big football frame is only a time to open female-skewing counter-programming like women's dramas, teen horror, or the occasional Spice Girls movie. Taken had incredible legs spending seven weeks in the top five and succeeded in entertaining action audiences with a revenge thriller that American adults could relate to. It also rebranded Neeson as the thinking man's action hero who could anchor a blockbuster hit by himself. He stepped into a void left open by Harrison Ford.

Film critics have been harsh on Taken 2 which is not surprising for a sequel lacking in originality. But the bad reviews this time will prompt some adults to hit the brakes and maybe take a pass. Normally an action film that opens well and then has legs will see a much bigger opening for its followup. But here the boost may not be huge. Fans of the first pic will certainly take interest, especially those who didn't come out on the first weekend but were sold on the movie later. However, older adults pay attention to reviews and the trailer does make it look like the exact same story but in a different city so enthusiasm may get dampened. Releasing in 3,661 theaters, Taken 2 might debut with around $37M. (projection raised due to updated theater count)

Last weekend, Universal saw an impressive debut for its a cappella college comedy Pitch Perfect grossing $5.1M from just 335 theaters for a potent $15,371 average putting it into the number six spot nationwide. Now the studio hopes to leverage good word-of-mouth and take the PG-13 film to the next level with an expansion into 2,781 sites as it tries to reach a broader audience of teens and young adults. The core crowd of females under 25 have nothing else to rally behind right now so direct competition will be light. Reviews have been good, buzz is spreading, and the advertising campaign has kicked into gear. A weekend take of about $16M could result.

Tim Burton's latest creation Frankenweenie is in the most unenviable position coming one week after another 3D animated film with a similar tone did gangbusters playing to the exact same crowd. Hotel Transylvania soared above expectations and now its second weekend will pose a big threat to Disney's new offering. Kids and families looking for something funny, creepy, and zany during this new Halloween month will have two major choices at the same time and the Dracula pic certainly has broader appeal. Frankenweenie may be more for the Coraline crowd.

Reviews have been quite good so that should help with more upscale parents and the marketing push has been strong. Two kidpics can certainly co-exist peacefully, but two that are so similar in style will make it extremely tough for the weaker product. And Hotel's headstart and positive buzz will mean a lot. Burton and pals will be hoping for legs with the target audience finding the pic later in the month if not on the first weekend. Opening in 3,005 locations, Frankenweenie might bow to around $15M.

Following a giant number one debut, Sony's animation hit Hotel Transylvania should deliver another solid frame at the box office thanks to positive word-of-mouth and some schools being off for Columbus Day. Frankenweenie will provide some direct competition, but the Adam Sandler pic is a much more mainstream option for families. A 35% decline would give Hotel about $27M for the weekend and a terrific $77M in ten days.

The sci-fi pic Looper was not as universally embraced by audiences as it was by film critics but it still comes off of a nice opening weekend. Liam Neeson will take away some of the action crowd so a 40% drop to about $12M could result putting the Sony release at a ten-day total of $40M.

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Watch the NEW trailer for The Lone Ranger. Read the NEW Blu-ray review for Cinderella.

For a NEW review of Hotel Transylvania visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR Disney and DreamWorks reached number one with their new futuristic boxing pic Real Steel which bowed to $27.3M on its way to a $85.5M final in North America and nearly $300M from around the world. George Clooney's critically acclaimed election drama The Ides of March debuted in second place with $10.5M heading to a softer than expected $41M for Sony. Rounding out the top five were holdovers Dolphin Tale with $9.1M, Moneyball with $7.5M, and 50/50 with $5.7M.

LAST WEEKEND's TOP 20

Last Updated: October 4, 2012 at 1:00PM ET

Watch Gitesh Pandya's weekly box office preview on CNN International airing live each Thursday at 7:40pm ET.