Weekend Box Office (September 25 - 27, 2009)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Three one-word titled films hit the multiplex marquees capping off the month of September with another variety of moviegoing options. Bruce Willis leads the way with his first sci-fi action film in over a decade with Surrogates. Also hoping to connect with paying movie fans are the dance remake Fame and the outer space horror flick Pandorum. All three will attempt to oust the much longer titled Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs from the top spot which will be no easy task.

Buena Vista rolls out a rare action offering for adults with Surrogates which finds Bruce Willis playing a cop in the future tracking down a mysterious villain that kills people through the robotic versions of themselves. Putting story ideas from The Matrix, I, Robot, Minority Report, The Terminator, and other sci-fi hits into a blender, the PG-13 film should skew a bit more male but may appeal to a wide age range. With so many horror films and dramas pouring into the marketplace over the last few weeks, Surrogates stands out and should play as a unique film. Willis provides ample starpower even if it feels like he's filling a void left by Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Getting young men in the fall is never easy since college and pro football provide ample competition on Saturdays and Sundays. Plus the marketing push has not been as prolonged as ones for the star's usual big action offerings. But an intriguing story, a popular action star, a trim 88-minute running time, lack of direct competition, and exciting trailers should lead to a solid first weekend gross. Surrogates opens in more than 2,700 theaters and could find itself with about $19M this weekend.

A bit late to the game, MGM unspools its first new release of 2009 with the remake of the musical drama Fame which tells the story of aspiring New York dancers and artists from the texting generation's perspective. With dance films like Step Up and Stomp the Yard being so popular over the last few years, it was not a surprise that this property would be resurrected and given the redo treatment. The title is a well-known brand and with a PG rating, it will try to bring in young teens looking for a film they can call their own as well as older adults who loved the 1980 hit film. Competition shouldn't be too fierce as most holdovers and new pics don't have direct appeal to teens. Still, Fame hasn't exactly reached can't-miss status with high schoolers so opening north of $20M like Step and Stomp is unlikely. Dancing into over 3'000 locations, Fame might debut with about $13M this weekend.

As the sixth scary movie of the last month, Pandorum has its work cut out for it this weekend. The R-rated film from Overture enters a marketplace where audiences have had their fill of horror and brutal violence and will only come out if the product has must-see buzz. Dennis Quaid and Ben Foster star as astronauts who wake up with no memory on a seemingly dark and deserted spacecraft with danger around every corner. Sci-fi fans may take some interest hoping this will be the next Event Horizon, but overall it lacks the excitement needed to succeed at the turnstiles. Plus the target audience may be more interested in Surrogates. Attacking around 2,400 theaters, Pandorum may bow to about $7M.

Sony will try to score its second back-to-back stint at number one this year after Paul Blart: Mall Cop with its current reigning champ Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs which aims to hold up well in its sophomore frame. Word-of-mouth has been stellar, reviews were glowing, and there are no new family movies or comedies opening this weekend to steal away dollars. A 30% dip to roughly $21M could result putting the 3D food flick at $56M after ten days and on a trajectory to hit nine-digit territory.

Matt Damon and Steven Soderbergh tapped into an average of below $4,200 last weekend for their new film The Informant! Surrogates is the only new release likely to provide direct competition so a 45% drop may result giving Warner Bros. about $6M this weekend and a ten-day tally of $19M. Tyler Perry could suffer a 50% decline for I Can Do Bad All By Myself putting the film at around $5M for the frame and upping the cume to $45M.

Check the chart of the top September openings. Get earlier box office updates and analysis by following BoxOfficeGuru.com on Twitter.

For reviews of Jennifer's Body and Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, and DVD reviews of Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, Hero, and The Big Bang Theory, visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR Unlike Megan Fox, Shia LaBeouf was able to anchor his own hit film outside of the Transformers franchise with the actioner Eagle Eye which bowed at number one with a strong $29.2M, the fourth best September opening at the time. Paramount found its way to a solid $101.4M domestically and $178M worldwide. Debuting in second with respectable results was the Richard Gere-Diane Lane romance Nights of Rodanthe with $13.4M on its way to $41.9M for Warner Bros. Sony's thriller Lakeview Terrace dropped from first to third with $7M in its second weekend. Surprising Hollywood with a sturdy debut was Kirk Cameron's faith-based drama Fireproof which bowed to $6.8M from only 839 locations for an impressive $8,148 average. The Samuel Goldwyn release had legs and ended up with $33.5M, five times its opening weekend tally. Rounding out the top five was Burn After Reading with $6.2M in its third round.

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Last Updated: September 24, 2009 at 10:10AM ET