Weekend Box Office (August 31 - September 3, 2012)
THIS WEEKEND Another summer comes to a close with three new films entering wide release aiming to collect some cash before Hollywood's most lucrative movie season ends. Horror fans get the spookfest The Possession, Lawless offers a crime saga, and kids will be offered the colorful The Oogieloves in the Big Balloon Adventure. In addition, the hit documentary 2016 Obama’s America expands once again hoping for a slot in the top five and the higher grossing holdovers should remain strong forces as people catch up on buzzworthy films they may not have seen yet.
It's been five years since a horror film has opened at number one over Labor Day weekend and Lionsgate hopes to end that drought with its new demonic thriller The Possession. The PG-13 pic is using horror guru Sam Raimi's name as a presenter in marketing materials and that should help it get noticed by fright fans. Overall interest is much stronger than for last week's supernatural dud The Apparition which failed to even make the top ten. Lionsgate is highly skilled in promoting horror and the audience has not had a big one to rally behind in over two months so some demand should be there. Jeffrey Dean Morgan and Kyra Sedgwick don't add much starpower to the table and reviews have been mixed. Haunting 2,700 theaters, The Possession could debut with around $13M over the Friday-to-Monday period.
The Prohibition Era drama Lawless brings together actors from recent billion-dollar summer threequel smashes and puts them into an old tale of booze and guns. The R-rated film stars Shia LaBeouf following up on last summer's latest Transformers hit along with Tom Hardy and Gary Oldman who still sit in the top ten with The Dark Knight Rises. Mature adults should make up a big part of the audience although the cast could help bring in young adults too. Reviews have generally been good and The Weinstein Co. is hoping the Wednesday start will spark some good word-of-mouth going into the long weekend. Now playing in 2,565 playdates, Lawless might debut to about $10M over the four-day weekend and $12M across the six-day span.
Parents with toddlers have been mostly out of luck this summer with kidpics being rated PG and aimed at older children. But the new G-rated film The Oogieloves in the Big Balloon Adventure aims at the pre-school set with an interactive experience from the makers of the American versions of such popular international kids brands as Teletubbies and Thomas the Tank Engine. This is a new property that is just getting off the ground so a large turnout is probably not likely. But some parents with extra time during the final weekend of summer who don't have anything else appropriate to see with their little ones may take interest. Now playing in 2,160 locations thanks to a Wednesday launch, The Oogieloves might debut with around $3M across the six-day Wednesday-to-Monday period.
Opening for a one-week run in 15 AMC IMAX 3D locations is the martial arts epic Flying Swords of Dragon Gate starring Jet Li. Released by Indomina, the R-rated film is billed as China's first IMAX 3D film and should play to hard-core fans of this genre. Reviews have generally been good for the high-grossing Asian blockbuster which will now open in top US markets like New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Chicago. Action fans that have seen the endless string of Hollywood sequels this summer may opt for something a little different in Flying Swords and Li - currently topping the charts as a co-star in The Expendables 2 - certainly provides starpower in this genre.
That Stallone all-star pack will continue to try to pull in adult men with extra time on their hands. Buzz has been good for The Expendables 2 with many moviegoers saying it is better than the first so a solid hold should result. The four-day gross may slide 15% from last weekend's three-day tally putting the Lionsgate pic at about $11M for the holiday session. The cume would rise to $69M.
Look for Labor Day audiences to catch up on other big-budget action sequels too. Universal's The Bourne Legacy will get to within striking distance of the century club. The long weekend gross may slide down to roughly $8M pushing the total to $97M. Hoping to see its four-day take rise compared to its three-day weekend from the last frame is the number two movie of the year, The Dark Knight Rises. Labor Day weekend saw four-day climbs of 21% and 6% for Christopher Nolan's last two July releases Inception and The Dark Knight, respectively. The threequel Rises is still holding up pretty well and should certainly connect with comic fans once again so a 10% rise to about $8M over four days could result putting the domestic sum at $433M.
Meanwhile overseas, China saw a solid start with $9M over its first two days of Monday and Tuesday. That's impressive considering these were weekdays and that Sony's rival super hero flick The Amazing Spider-Man opened on the same day against it. Add in Knight's Italy launch on Wednesday and the global total could very well break the $1 billion mark on Sunday, or latest on Monday.
Another holdover poised to do well is the political documentary 2016 Obama's America which will capitalize on the energy of this week's Republican National Convention to expand further from 1,091 to 1,800 locations taking its message to more of its target audience. Rocky Mountain Pictures has brilliantly been rolling the film out with impeccable timing and the grosses have been very impressive. 2016 may pull in another $9M or so this long weekend and boost its cume to an incredible $21M by Labor Day.
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Watch the trailer for Hyde Park on Hudson. Read the NEW DVD review of Mighty Morphin Power Rangers: Season 1, Volume 1. For a review of The Dark Knight Rises visit The Chief Report.
LAST YEAR Spending its third straight weekend on top of the box office, the sleeper hit The Help held the number one spot over the long Labor Day holiday frame with $19.9M across four days. Enjoying a solid debut in second place was the Focus release The Debt with $12.9M and a $7,000 average over four days while The Weinstein Co. went very wide with its thriller Apollo 18 which bowed to $10.7M and a four-day average of just over $3,000. Final grosses were $31.2M and $17.7M, respectively. The popular holdover Rise of the Planet of the Apes followed with $10.3M over the long weekend while the horror flick Shark Night 3D debuted in fifth with $10.1M. The Relativity pic ended with $18.9M.
This column is updated three times each week: Thursday (upcoming weekend's summary), Sunday (post-weekend analysis with estimates), and Monday night (actuals). Opinions expressed in this column are those solely of the author.
Last Updated: August 30, 2012 at 12:30PM ET
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