Weekend Box Office (May 29 - 31, 2015)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Dwayne Johnson returns to the world of the solo action hero with the disaster movie San Andreas which is looking at smooth sailing into the number one spot over another sluggish session at the North American box office.

Moviegoers love a good disaster film and there have not been that many in recent years so this PG-13 entry is well-positioned. The specifics of this earthquake flick will certainly resonate with California audiences, maybe not as much with those in the other 49 states. But trailers and TV spots are impressive and Johnson brings ample starpower. Competing films will all be below $20M this weekend, most below $15M. Those who got their action fill in recent months with A-list action franchises may take a pass on this one so there is a limit to its success.

Mixed reviews should not matter too much. Disaster films 2012 and The Day After Tomorrow were panned by critics but attracted huge openings with the popcorn crowd looking to check brains at doors and watch massive destruction on the big screen. At least this is not one of two competing volcano or meteor flicks. Johnson's Hercules bowed to $29.8M last summer and he should flex more muscle this time. Debuting in 3,777 locations, San Andreas could collect about $37M this weekend. The global roll-out includes 60 markets this weekend including eight of the top ten ones. China and Korea open one week later.

Bradley Cooper is set to make one of the biggest about faces of the year as he follows up the military juggernaut American Sniper with the romantic dramedy Aloha which is lacking in consumer interest and heading for a soft debut. The PG-13 film co-stars Emma Stone and Rachel McAdams and comes from director Cameron Crowe who has been away from commercial hits for some time. Trailers still list him as the maker of the nearly-two-decade-old Jerry Maguire.

Adult women will be the prime target audience. May has not served that crowd all that well so this could get some attention. Starpower will help too. But excitement is low and advance ticket sales are just a blip on the radar. There is no urgency here. Plus reviews have been embargoed until the last minute and now negative ones are popping up left and right. Critical opinions are likely to wash away some interested parties. Sony goes into 2,815 locations with Aloha and may find itself with around $10M this weekend.

Following a soft opening over a long holiday weekend, the big-budget sci-fi pic Tomorrowland goes into its all-important second weekend hoping to deliver a decent hold. Audience love has not been too hot and moviegoers are not exactly urging others to go out and see it. Families looking for low-impact adventure may still show up as they won't have much interest in the new titles.

But the George Clooney film is still on shaky ground. A 50% drop from a holiday would be good and will lead to a weekend of around $16M. Disney's cume would rise to just $66M on a trajectory that puts it just a bit past $100M by the end of the domestic run. Production plus global marketing costs are in the $250-300M range.

Universal's comedy sequel Pitch Perfect 2 could slide by 45% to about $17M hitting $150M on Sunday. Mad Max: Fury Road has really been enjoying the audience love. Though number three last weekend, it vaulted back to number one on Tuesday and Wednesday. A 45% drop would put Warner Bros. at roughly $13.5M for a cume of $116M.

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For a review of Tomorrowland visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR Angelina Jolie scored a career high with Maleficent which bowed to $69.4M for Disney on its way to stellar numbers that reached $241.4M domestically and becoming one of the year's biggest global hits with $758M worldwide. Falling sharply from its opening was the super hero saga X-Men: Days of Future Past with $32.6M in second place. The raunchy comedy A Million Ways to Die in the West saw sluggish sales in third with a debut of $16.8M, far below what Ted did. Holdovers Godzilla and Blended rounded out the top five with $12M and $8.1M.

LAST WEEKEND's TOP 20

Last Updated: May 28, 2015 at 4:00PM ET

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