Weekend Box Office (May 20 - 22, 2011)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Disney gears up for its first number one hit of the year with the 3D adventure tentpole Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides which attacks theaters as the only new wide release for the frame. With all other studios backing off, the latest Johnny Depp blockbuster is poised to lift the global box office to new heights with the domestic market set to see double digit gains over last year.

The fourth installment of the lucrative Pirates franchise, On Stranger Tides presents audiences with a reconfigured package that combines new elements with familiar ones that made the series successful in the first place. Depp, the main commercial anchor of the saga, is front and center once again and appears throughout the film unlike in the last installment At World's End which featured a large portion without him on screen. Superproducer Jerry Bruckheimer is still in charge, the writers are back, and speech therapist Geoffrey Rush is along for the ride too.

But gone from the first three films are director Gore Verbinski and co-stars Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley. In their place are director Rob Marshall (Chicago), Penélope Cruz, and Ian McShane who stars as the villain Blackbeard. From a commercial perspective, the swap should not affect ticket sales too much. Also new is the 3D upgrade and the aggressive launch in a record 257 IMAX screens in North America and 396 worldwide this weekend. As with the last two films, the PG-13 Tides will dock in more than 4,000 domestic sites.

Grossing $2.68 billion worldwide to date, Pirates is the crown jewel in Disney's franchise business with more untold riches being extracted from merchandise, games, themes parks, and other avenues. The first two installments opened in July when all students were out of school so comparisons would not be fair. The most recent tale At World's End debuted over the long Memorial Day weekend in 2007 with a whopping $153M collected from its launch on Thursday night with 8pm showtimes until end of business Monday. The Friday-to-Sunday tally was an impressive $114.7M which is skewed since some of the upfront Friday business spilled into Thursday evening and the Monday holiday allowed Sunday to dip by a mere 10%. But that figure comes as close as we get to gauging the current Pirates audience.

But World was not well-received and that ill will should prompt some of those fans to drop out of the picture this time around. Reviews for Tides are roughly on par with World's so moviegoers are not getting the idea that this installment has turned things around this late in the game as was the case with Fast Five last month. However, with the Vin Diesel vehicle and Thor both aging, Johnny's got the only new action adventure in town for those wanting big-budget escapist summer fare this weekend. Also, competition for kids won't be as tough as it was for World when Shrek and Spider-Man threequels yanked $67M out of the equation.

Another advantage Tides will have over World will be the higher ticket prices from those 3D and IMAX screens. While 2010 was a breakout year for the extra dimension, it's no longer a novelty and moviegoers have shown caution this year with many 3D pics getting snubbed. Consumers have become more selective when choosing to pay the surcharges but Pirates is such a big tentpole brand that plenty of patrons will opt to pay the additional dough while crossing their fingers. Four years have passed since the last Jack Sparrow adventure which is enough time for many to forget what they hated about the last pic, but still makes the franchise relevant in today's marketplace. Set to sail high atop the box office charts, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides might take in around $98M this weekend.

The comic book flick Thor is coming off of a great hold last weekend and has its eyes set on breaking the $150M mark in 17 days. But Pirates will have a huge footprint and steal away plenty of 3D and IMAX screens starting at midnight on Thursday night. Plus the Norse God has been scoring points with kids and Disney is determined to take them away too with its latest high seas adventure. A 40% decline may result giving Thor about $20M for the frame and a cume of $151M.

While Thor ruled the weekend, the hit comedy Bridesmaids has topped the daily box office on Monday and Tuesday following its second place bow. Word-of-mouth is powering this sleeper hit and there is no telling how far it can go. Given its performance on Sunday, which was off a remarkably low 28% from Saturday, and its daily numbers it would make sense for the second weekend to experience a relatively low dip especially since the only new film opening is an effects-driven actioner.

However with Johnny Depp, Bridesmaids could not have asked for a worse action star to go up against as his pull with adult women is magnetic. Universal is hoping though that positive buzz will help get in more males who were scared away by the title last weekend and now have heard from many friends how funny the pic is. A 35% drop would give Bridesmaids about $17M and a ten-day score of $55M.

Universal's other success story Fast Five is on a collision course with the double century mark and should see a 40% fall to around $12M boosting the total to $188M. The Diesel-Rock smackdown should crack $200M by Memorial Day.

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Watch the NEW trailer for Cars 2. Check the chart for the Top May Openings.

For a NEW review of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR Like its three predecessors, Shrek Forever After opened at number one on the weekend before the Memorial Day holiday frame but the gross dropped sharply from the last two sequels despite 3D surcharges with $70.8M. The Paramount release had good legs though and was muscular overseas reaching $238.7M from North America and a colossal $753M worldwide. The studio also claimed the number two spot with another high-profile sequel from a major supplier, Marvel's Iron Man 2, with $26.4M. Rounding out the top five were Universal's Robin Hood with $18.8M, Summit's Letters to Juliet with $9M, and Fox Searchlight's Just Wright with $4.3M. Universal saw disastrous results from its comedy MacGruber starring Will Forte and Kristin Wiig which debuted in sixth with only $4M and a horrible $1,585 average.

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Last Updated: May 19, 2011 at 10:45AM ET

Watch Gitesh Pandya's weekly box office preview on CNN International airing live each Thursday at 7:40pm ET.