Weekend Box Office (May 6 - 8, 2016)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND The interlocking movies that make up Marvel's ongoing super hero soap opera get their latest chapter with the much-anticipated launch of Captain America: Civil War. It's the third installment in the super soldier series, but will play out commercially like a third Avengers movie. The PG-13 film brings in Iron Man plus a whole collection of Avengers characters and also marks the introduction of the third movie iteration of Spider-Man following the demise of the reboot.

The Marvel fan base is massive and the films with the biggest openings tend to be the ones with Iron Man, and this is his next story. Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened to $95M in April 2014 but Civil War will blow that away. It could even double it. A year ago this weekend, Avengers: Age of Ultron debuted to $191.3M and that would be the best comp given the release date and the similar assembly of characters. Many comic book fans were let down by Batman v Superman and are looking for Civil War to provide that super hero smackdown salvation. Marvel is seeing all-time company highs in both reviews and advance ticket sales so all signs point to a bigger opening weekend that BvS's $166M.

Usual tentpole factors are at play here - 7pm Thursday night pre-shows plus 3D and IMAX availability for those wanting a premium experience. Normally the first weekend of May allows for close to zero competition and a tentpole gobbling up all screens within a multiplex. But as a victim of its own success, Disney actually has another monster hit still hanging around in The Jungle Book which in its fourth weekend will amazingly still be playing in over 4,000 locations. It's been five years since the number two film on the summer kickoff weekend managed to break $15M and that was in 2011 when Thor debuted at number one followed by Fast Five in the runner-up spot with $32.4M in its sophomore frame.

But Disney will need to truck in plenty of champagne to pop open since between Captain America: Civil War and The Jungle Book the studio will grab over 80% marketshare this weekend while all other films should be below $6M each. And both movies are likely to become billion-dollar global juggernauts.

This year, Mother's Day falls on the summer kickoff weekend which is always ruled by testosterone flicks. That may contribute to Civil War not having the 11% Saturday-to-Sunday dip that Ultron enjoyed a year ago. And franchise fatigue can't be discounted for more casual moviegoers. While massive, Ultron debuted below expectaions. But marketing has been turned up to 11 and fan excitement could not be stronger. Buzz is likely to be solid too so it should have a nice life throughout May. Opening in 4,226 locations, Captain America: Civil War may capture about $185M this weekend.

For daily updates on the opening day and weekend for Captain America: Civil War, follow BoxOfficeGuru.com on Twitter.

Disney routinely allows drive-in theaters to do double features when a major new film opens. But this time the second part of the double feature won't be some old film. Instead it will be the current number one movie in the land - The Jungle Book. That will help grosses a bit, but the vast majority of screens will not be drive-in locations so the normal laws of gravity will apply for them. Posting nice holds so far, the adventure flick may drop 30% to about $30M in second place and raise its domestic cume to $294M. The global gross will approach the $800M mark.

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LAST YEAR Dropping 59% in its second frame, Avengers: Age of Ultron held the number one spot for a second and final time grossing $77.7M sending the 10.5-day cume over the triple century mark. Warner Bros. fumbled with its buddy comedy Hot Pursuit which bowed to $13.9M on its way to a $34.6M final. Holdovers followed in a tight range and had small dips. The Age of Adaline did $5.8M, Furious 7 collected $5.4M, and Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 took in $5.3M.

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Last Updated: May 5, 2016 at 5:05PM ET

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