Weekend Box Office (March 25 - 27, 2016)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Multiplexes are stocking up on popcorn and high fructose corn syrup drinks as millions of moviegoers will be flooding theaters over the Easter frame for the much-hyped launch of the super hero mash-up Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. Warner Bros. has much riding on this one as it is a gateway to a larger DC Comics universe of films which will feature movies about solo characters as well as the Justice League team-up flicks in 2017 and 2019.

Last Easter, Furious 7 charged into theaters to a jaw-dropping $147.2M opening weekend setting records in the process. March's biggest debut ever was the $152.5M of 2012's The Hunger Games. BvS looks to make its way into the same neighborhood. Anticipation has been red hot for months and the marketing push remains at maximum. The addition of Batman and Wonder Woman to the mix, plus a glimpse at other Justice League heroes, has pumped up excitement among fans. They will not miss out on this event film.

But the big question mark will be the negative reviews and the film's quality. Bad marks from critics will have some impact, but more important will be customer satisfaction among fans. They matter more. How forcefully will the first crowds endorse the movie and recommend it to others? A portion will be disappointed which in turn will heighten Saturday and Sunday declines.

Man of Steel debuted to $56.1M on its opening day if you include all Thursday night shows + all of Friday. It was in mid-June when many schools were out, but the new film opens on Good Friday and has much of the same situation. IMAX and 3D formats are once again in play, but Thursday night shows start early at 6:00pm. Justice should start stronger, maybe in the $70M ballpark. For the full opening weekend, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice might haul in around $153M.

Another franchise film launches this weekend, but will likely make a tenth of the business of the DC Comics mash-up. 14 years after the first indie pic became a record breaking sleeper hit, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 enters the marketplace as one of those sequels nobody asked for. Last year we had one of those called Mad Max: Fury Road, but its high quality led it to become a huge Oscar-winning blockbuster. Zoolander 2 on the other hand...

Greek Wedding 2 falls closer to the latter. Rather than a franchise, the first film was a movie of the moment. It was a word-of-mouth hit that pulled people onto the bandwagon over several months. In fact, it did not reach its peak chart position of number two until its 20th weekend on its way to a jaw-dropping $241.4M domestic gross off of a mere $5M budget. It was one of the biggest pop culture hits of 2002, but much has changed since then and demand is small now for a follow-up story.

Universal is hoping that it can reach adult women on a weekend dominated by the testosterone antics of super heroes. But reviews are bad so there may not be many takers. Opening in over 3,100 locations, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 could take in around $13M this weekend.

Disney's leggy animated hit Zootopia stands a good chance of setting a new record for the biggest fourth weekend gross of all-time for a toon. That mark is currently held by 2001's Monsters, Inc. with $24.1M. Ticket prices were much lower then, but it also got help from the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Dawn of Justice will eat into some business from older kids for sure, but the family-friendly Easter session still has only one major option for children and Zootopia should once again show a nice hold. A 30% slide would put the animal flick at about $26M pushing the cume up to $243M.

It was a disappointing start for The Divergent Series: Allegiant last weekend with the third chapter falling sharply from the opening weekend levels of the first movies. Fans are not liking this one too much and a massive new action offering is entring the fray. Friday's holiday could help shave a few percentage points off the decline. A 55% tumble would give Lionsgate around $13M for the frame and $49M to date.

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Watch the trailer for Captain America: Civil War.


LAST YEAR DreamWorks Animation scored a hit with the toon comedy Home which bowed to $52.1M for Fox on its way to $177.4M. R-rated laughs followed as Get Hard debuted in second with a strong $33.8M on its way to $90.4M for Warner Bros. Female-led tentpole holdovers The Divergent Series: Insurgent and Cinderella were next with $21.5M and $17M, respectively. Indie fright flick It Follows expanded nationwide after two buzzworthy weeks in limited play and rose up to fifth with $3.8M.

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Last Updated: March 24, 2016 at 1:00PM ET

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