Weekend Box Office (March 8 - 10, 2013)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Looking to score the largest opening by far for any film since The Hobbit, Disney unleashes its big-budget gamble Oz the Great and Powerful, a prequel to the beloved classic tale The Wizard of Oz. Spider-Man director Sam Raimi helms his first PG film and brings his love for all things scary to the family film genre making this more of a "hard PG." Parents with younger tots may want to skip out, however Oz has built up fantastic buzz over the last few months and is sure to draw in large crowds this weekend.

The grosses should swell thanks not only to 3D, but to the picture's appeal to multiple audiences. The brand is well-known and still relevant unlike last weekend's Jack and the Beanstalk film based on a tale that is well-known, but not anything special to today's moviegoer. With its lavish and colorful look, Oz has a built-in audience of kids but is also going to do very well with adult women. Moms won't be dropping off the kids on this one, they will stay. Disney has made a calculated choice to promote the glamour and style of the film, sets, and actresses and that will help it appeal to women and to teens and young adults. With three Oscar-nominated actors, the cast features James Franco, Michelle Williams, Mila Kunis, and Rachel Weisz. Individually, none are big box office anchors. But together, they add a respectable amount of starpower.

Oz does have its share of liabilities. As a leading man, Franco is not consistently engaging. The runtime is a little over two hours plus as mentioned, the film may be too frightening for the youngest set. And Wizard of Oz purists may not entirely love the story. However, it does play well as a visual spectacle and an entertaining roller coaster ride which is what most audiences are looking for when they pay money at the box office for films like these. Customers want escapist fun and this one delivers. Reviews have been mixed and may have a minor impact but this one has something which most 2013 films have lacked - genuine consumer excitement.

A great and powerful opening weekend is in store for Oz which is being compared to the studio's massive fairy tale hit Alice in Wonderland which bowed to a gargantuan $116.1M on the first weekend of March three years ago on its way to over $1 billion worldwide. Nobody should expect similar numbers here. None of the Oz cast comes close to the star wattage of Johnny Depp plus 3D was in its boom period back then with moviegoers happy to pay the surcharges. People are much more cautious now after being burned so many times. But Oz, which carries a production cost in the neighborhood of $200M, should still play to a large section of that crowd.

Its American storyline could curtail its international appeal by a small amount, but Disney should certainly witness a massive global run with this one. It launches in 80% of the international marketplace this week with China and France to come a little later. The cast has been circling the planet with red carpet premieres in Moscow, Tokyo, and London in an effort to make this the top movie event film of the spring. Opening domestically in over 3,700 theaters, Oz the Great and Powerful should easily dominate the box office this weekend and could collect about $70M.

Over the past few months, most films with heavy gunplay have underperformed. Not about to change that is the revenge actioner Dead Man Down starring Colin Farrell and Noomi Rapace from the director of the original Swedish hit The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. The R-rated release from FilmDistrict will play to adults and could skew more male but so many action titles aimed at this audience have flopped this year. Ten years ago, Farrell hit the number one spot four times but his starpower has faded since his banner year of 2003. And reviews may not give much assistance to Down. Opening in 2,175 locations, Dead Man Down could find itself with about $6M this weekend.

In limited release, Cinedigm opens the documentary Don't Stop Believin': Everyman's Journey, a look at how the iconic American rock band found its new lead singer in the Philippines through YouTube videos. An official selection of the Tribeca Film Festival and San Francisco International Film Festival, the picture debuts in numerous major markets on Friday.

Following its dreadful opening last weekend, the mega-priced fairy tale adventure Jack the Giant Slayer will take a mighty tumble in the second round. Despite decent word-of-mouth, the arrival of Oz will take away much of the target audience. Plus effects-heavy actioners usually see sizable second weekend drops anyway. A 55% fall may occur putting the $190M+ production at about $12M giving Warner Bros. only $46M after ten days.

The comedy hit Identity Thief has had great legs but part of its crowd of adult women will shift over to the witches of Oz. A 35% decline could result putting Universal at about $6M in the fifth frame and $116M to date.

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LAST YEAR Staying at number one for a second weekend was Universal's animated hit The Lorax which dropped 45% to $38.8M, an impressive take for a sophomore frame. One of the year's costliest bombs landed in second with Disney's mega-budgeted sci-fi dud John Carter bowing to $30.2M on its way to $73.1M domestically and $284M worldwide. Holdovers followed with Project X making $11.1M and Act of Valor taking in $7M. Debuting poorly in fifth was the fright flick Silent House with just $6.7M for Open Road finishing with only $12.8M.

LAST WEEKEND's TOP 20

Last Updated: March 7, 2013 at 12:45PM ET

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