Weekend Box Office (February 10 - 12, 2012)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Following a string of releases this year from almost every medium-sized distributor in the business, the major studios come back with a vengeance shoving four new titles into the marketplace on Friday with three of them having a legitimate shot at capturing the North American box office crown. Universal goes after adults with the CIA actioner Safe House starring Denzel Washington, Sony courts young women with the romance The Vow featuring Rachel McAdams and Channing Tatum, Fox goes after sci-fi fans and kids with the 3D version of Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace, and Warner Bros. hopes there will be some room left for another franchise action film Journey 2: The Mysterious Island starring Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson.

Denzel Washington takes a break from train-related action flicks by playing the villain in the espionage thriller Safe House with Ryan Reynolds taking the other lead role. The R-rated pic about a captured veteran operative gone rogue and the younger agent assigned to keep him in custody should play to the adult audience that routinely comes out for Washington for his previous action films. Breaking $20M on opening weekend, regardless of rating, is common and should once again happen here. Universal has invested heavily in the marketing as licensing music from Jay Z and Kanye West for the film and for TV spots does not come cheap. Neither does a Super Bowl ad.

Business from African American adults should be solid and help give Safe House a boost. The Oscar winner sells in these types of roles and he's proven himself highly likable playing the sorta-bad guy in films like Training Day which won him the Academy Award and American Gangster which delivered a career-best $43.6M debut. Outside of The Grey - which bowed to $19.7M - there is not much for older adults as most new films and holdovers are skewing younger. Mixed reviews could sting a bit as the audience will be somewhat sensitive to those. But the reliable starpower of Washington should be the primary factor that gets crowds in here. Opening in 3,118 theaters, Safe House could lock down about $23M this weekend.

Romance films, whether comedy or drama, sell around Valentine's Day. Sony is looking at a big hit with its Rachel McAdams-Channing Tatum love story The Vow which has been generating tremendous heat over the last two weeks with fans. The PG-13 film about a husband who works endlessly to make his wife fall in love with him again after she loses her memory in a car accident will certainly skew heavily female. But the male turnout may be larger than usual since many guys will have no choice but to go along in order not to rock the boat with the love holiday right around the corner.

Starpower is potent for this one as both leads are bankable in this genre. Tatum can forever pat himself on the back as being the one who knocked Avatar out of the number one spot with his Super Bowl weekend romance Dear John which bowed to $30.5M and McAdams has anchored films like 2004's The Notebook and 2009's The Time Traveler's Wife which opened to $13.5M and $18.6M, respectively. Sony has done a terrific job marketing The Vow and promoting the fact that the story is inspired by true events will certainly help mobilize the target audience. Entering more than 2,800 theaters, The Vow might win over about $22M although a frenzied rush could take it much higher.

George Lucas dips into his old reliable vault again with a new hope - to get fans of the Skywalker family to pony up cash for new 3D upgrades of his popular films. First up is Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace which hits theaters Friday complete with that extra dimension. The PG-rated film is the least popular installment in the six-film series, at least among older fans, but it's also the highest grossing one among the prequels. Comparing grosses to the first trilogy would be meaningless since the old films had much lower ticket prices as well as re-releases in different decades. Phantom Menace grossed $431.1M in 1999 which made it the second highest first-run gross for any film in history after Titanic. But during its run, the kid-friendly story enjoyed huge Saturday matinee bumps indicating great playability to younger children. This was their generation's Star Wars and now they are in their early 20s and may be interested in reliving the fun. Plus hardcore Jedi fans can be counted on to take a look, today's kids may want a shot at the big-screen experience, and 3D surcharges will help boost the tallies. Opening in the fewest theaters of any new film with around 2,600, Star Wars Episode I might take in around $21M this weekend.

After falling to a new box office low with 2010's Faster, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is winning over audiences once again with a new career strategy - jumping into other people's franchises. Squeezing in between last year's runaway smash Fast Five and this summer's G.I. Joe: Retaliation, the former wrestling champion stars in Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, the followup to 2008's Journey to the Center of the Earth starring Brendan Fraser which was among the first 3D action movies in today's era. This PG-rated adventure offers plenty of special effects, beasts, and exotic treasures in hopes of luring tween boys and their dads. Interest is not terribly high and reviews have been lackluster.

Films like these are still doing gangbusters overseas but American audiences have been burned many times and have become more selective. Over $45M has been grossed internationally already from 19 markets and the film is running 52% ahead of the pace of its predecessor with top-tier markets Russia and China opening this weekend. 3D Hollywood action films continue to rake in major cash there. With many other action offerings out there domestically, including one with Jedis, Journey will have a tough time becoming a top priority for audiences here, though. Warner Bros. invades more than 3,400 sites this Friday and a weekend take of about $17M could result.

Last weekend's pair of $20M+ overperforming newbies should see significant declines thanks to heavy competition. The Fox hit Chronicle has plenty of male-skewing action offerings attacking it so a 50% fall to about $11M could result giving the super hero tale around $38M in ten days which would be more than three times its production cost. Daniel Radcliffe's spookfest The Woman in Black could see a similar tumble with women shifting over to Channing & Rachel this weekend. That would give the CBS Films release roughly $10M and a cume of $34M after ten days.

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Watch the NEW trailer for The Amazing Spider-Man and check the chart for the Oscar Nominees and Grosses.

For a review of Chronicle visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR A wave of four new films swept into multiplexes taking the top spots at the box office with over $94M in combined sales. Adam Sandler won a narrow victory with his latest comedy vehicle Just Go With It with Jennifer Aniston which bowed to $30.5M on its way to a $103M final for Sony. Close behind in second was the low cost music pic Justin Bieber: Never Say Never which opened well to $29.5M before fading away quickly to $73M for Paramount. A surprisingly strong showing came in third from the animated comedy Gnomeo & Juliet with $25.4M for Disney. A $100M final resulted. Channing Tatum stumbled with his action entry The Eagle which collected just $8.7M in its premiere frame for Focus on its way to a $19.5M final. Sony's horror flick The Roommate fell from first to fifth with $8.1M but held up surprisingly well given all the competition with a 46% drop.

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Last Updated: February 9, 2012 at 11:45AM ET

Watch Gitesh Pandya's weekly box office preview on CNN International airing live each Thursday at 7:40pm ET.