Weekend Box Office (February 5 - 7, 2016)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND As modern-day gladiators battle it out in the Bay Area in Super Bowl 50, the ladies of nineteenth century England unleash a can of whoopass on the undead in the new horror film Pride and Prejudice and Zombies which leads a trio of medium-sized new releases.

Sony has a long and successful track record of countering Super Bowl weekend with alternative fare that attracts an audience less interested in football. This year the studio has a PG-13 offering which can attract teens and young females but also has a twist on the popular zombie genre which will spark broader interest. Reviews have been on the negative side, but trailers are sharp and exciting. Young women have little else targeting them right now which will help. Attacking 2,930 theaters, Pride and Prejudice and Zombies may bow to about $12M this weekend.

Film critics are generally kind to the Coen brothers and they are once again for their latest, the Hollywood satire Hail, Caesar! which boasts an all-star cast that includes George Clooney, Josh Brolin, Channing Tatum and Scarlett Johansson. The PG-13 pic will benefit from the cast names on the marquee as well as from the loyal fan base that the Oscar-winning filmmakers have built up over the past three decades.

Competition will come from some of the mature-skewing films out right now including Oscar contenders and long-term prospects are questionable given that Caesar may not please a mainstream audience looking for a star-driven comedy. Universal releases Hail, Caesar! in 2,231 theaters and could end up with about $11M this weekend.

Lionsgate is hoping women come out for The Choice, the latest movie adapted from a Nicholas Sparks romance novel. This PG-13 offering is sure to attract negative reviews just like its predecessors but low star wattage will be a factor and make audiences look elsewhere for their spending. Overall consumer excitement is low so breaking double digit millions may prove to be too hard here. Plus having Clooney and pals open a new film at the same time will sting. Opening in 2,631 locations, The Choice might take in about $8M.

Kung Fu Panda 3 posted a solid debut last weekend and hopes to enjoy the kind of good legs that winter toons often have. As a threequel, the Fox release is made to burn up much of its audience upfront, but this one is not exactly a must-see on the opening days so there should be plenty of families able to come out in the second week and beyond.

Word of mouth has been terrific so that will help plus there are no new offerings taking away kids this weekend. Kidpics also suffer smaller drops on Super Bowl Sunday when compared to adult-skewing films. A 40% slide may be in order giving Panda about $24M for the weekend and $73M overall while still sitting pretty at number one.

Oscar contenders usually make for good counter-programming to the Big Game so The Revenant stands to collect some decent cash. A 35% dip would give Fox around $8M allowing the cume to crack $150M. Star Wars: The Force Awakens is still doing well with hardcore fans and kids. A similar decline would put Disney at roughly $7M for the weekend and $906M to date. The weekend will see both the $900M domestic and $2 billion global marks get broken.

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Watch the trailer for Neighbors 2.


LAST YEAR Toon power ruled as Paramount brought back a key franchise with The SpongeBob Movie which bowed to a strong $55.4M on its way to a $163M final. The jolly underwater character bumped American Sniper to second with $23.3M showing another nice hold for Warner Bros. New action films followed with the studio debuting Jupiter Ascending to $18.4M and Universal flopping with Seventh Son's $7.2M debut. Finals were $47.4M and $17.2M. Project Almanac rounded out the top five with $5.2M.

LAST WEEKEND's TOP 20

Last Updated: February 4, 2016 at 3:10PM ET

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